Transport and Vehicle Engineering | Article | Published 2023
Objective: The content of the article is mainly concerned with solving the problem of efficient distribution of cargo flows in the transport network and their optimal development in accordance with the growth (dynamics) of traffic volumes, taking into account the throughput of the road. For this, methods for generating initial data and determining their reliability are presented. As an example, predictive calculations of an increase in the volume of cargo transportation in the Surkhandarya region were performed using the time series method and an analysis was presented. Methods. Statistical analysis, economic forecasting, dynamic series methods, and least squares methods were used widely in the article. Results. The distribution of flows in the regional transport network and their development in accordance with the perspective of the dynamics of flows is an important task. In solving this problem, the perspective flow is the main source of information. The article presents the flow forecast at the site, its prognostic equations are determined, the indicators achieved by the time series method and the results of the forecast are compared, and a conclusion is made about its reliability. Conclusion. Really achieved indicators and predicted results are compared and a conclusion is made about their reliability. For example, for 2021, the maximum value of the time series forecast is 80801.6, the minimum value is 74867.6, and the actually achieved indicator is 73779.7. Therefore, the values obtained for the calculation can be called reliable, given that they do not have a big difference.